Madagascar at a Crossroad: What Possible Scenarios Could Unfold

1. Introduction

Since late September 2025, Madagascar has witnessed a surge of youth activism led primarily by Generation Z. Their demands include basic services such as clean water and electricity, alongside broader calls for accountable governance. The protests in Antananarivo gained momentum, culminating in the elite CAPSAT military unit, under Colonel Michael Randrianirina, siding with demonstrators and orchestrating a coup that forced President Andry Rajoelina to flee. The country’s next steps could either reinforce democratic norms or entrench military authority. This article explores the most plausible post-coup scenarios and their implications for governance, youth engagement, and democratic stability across the Global South.

2. Background

The coup was preceded by nearly three weeks of intense youth-led protests in Antananarivo. These demonstrations were driven by frustration over chronic power outages, water shortages, and widespread government corruption. The movements were mobilized through digital platforms and grassroots networks, initially aimed at pressuring the government for reform. However, their demands soon escalated into a confrontation with state institutions, culminating in military intervention.

On October 14, 2025, Colonel Randrianirina announced that the military had assumed control, suspending most state institutions except the National Assembly. The following day, the High Constitutional Court formally invited him to assume the presidency, with his inauguration scheduled for October 17, 2025.

With this in mind, the youth and the broader Malagasy population expect their demands to be genuinely addressed. The next interim government must respond meaningfully to these concerns, rather than treating the coup as a mere display of power.

3. Scenario Analysis

As the analysis suggests, Madagascar’s post-coup trajectory depends heavily on how the military engages with Gen Z and other civic actors. A managed transition could reinforce democratic norms and validate youth activism, whereas military consolidation risks entrenching authoritarian practices and reigniting unrest. Persistent instability would lead to prolonged insecurity, while youth-led reform presents an opportunity for generationally driven structural change, if the interim government allows meaningful participation.

These scenarios also reflect broader patterns in the Global South, where young populations, institutional fragility, and military interventions intersect. How Madagascar navigates this critical moment will have lasting implications for democracy, governance, and youth engagement both locally and regionally.

4. Global South Context

Madagascar’s post-coup situation mirrors broader trends observed across the Global South, where youth activism, institutional fragility, and military interventions converge. Similar dynamics have recently emerged in various countries across Africa and Asia, such as Niger (2023), where youth frustration over inflation and unemployment created openings for military takeovers; Sudan (2021), where generational discontent fueled military consolidation; Nepal (2025), where student-led protests pressured political elites for reform; and Burkina Faso (2022), where young citizens played a central role in the military junta under Ibrahim Traoré.

Across these cases, recurring challenges emerge: chronic service delivery gaps, corruption, weak democratic institutions, and the growing political influence of young generations. When civilian governments fail to respond effectively, youth movements may mobilize sometimes aligning with military actors who exploit the power handed to them by the people.

Madagascar reflects these same dynamics, as chronic water and electricity shortages and perceived government ineffectiveness fueled Gen Z protests that ultimately aligned with the CAPSAT military intervention. Understanding these parallels provides key insights into both the risks and the potential opportunities facing Madagascar today.

5. Conclusion

Madagascar stands at a defining moment in its political history. The October 2025 coup, born from legitimate frustrations over governance failures and service collapse, reflects both the power and the peril of youth-driven mobilization. What began as a call for accountability and basic dignity has evolved into a national reckoning over the future of democracy itself.

The country’s trajectory now depends on how Colonel Michael Randrianirina’s interim leadership responds to the demands that ignited the crisis. The best possible outcome would be a well-managed transition involving youth and civil society, leading to credible elections and improved governance.

Madagascar’s experience is far from unique; it reflects a broader trend seen in countries such as Niger, Sudan, Burkina Faso, and Nepal, where younger generations are challenging entrenched political elites and demanding more responsive, transparent governance. These movements signal a profound generational shift, one led by a digitally connected youth unwilling to accept stagnation, yet vulnerable to manipulation or repression by emerging regimes.

Ultimately, Madagascar’s future depends on how it channels this moment of upheaval. If its leaders can transform protest into participation and harness the energy and vision of Gen Z within an inclusive political process, the country could become a model for democratic renewal in the Global South. If not, it risks falling into the familiar cycle of unfulfilled revolutions where the hope for change fades once again into disappointment.

References

1. AP News. (2025, October 14). Timeline of Madagascar protests and military coup. Associated Press. https://apnews.com/article/6d56fcb2653557e359ffb74cf0481f41

2. Le Monde. (2025, October 16). Madagascar’s Gen Z refuses to let its victory be taken away. https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/10/16/madagascar-s-gen-z-refuses-to-let-its-victory-be-taken-away_6746497_4.html

3. Al Jazeera. (2025, October 14). Madagascar president flees as military takes over. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/10/14/madagascar-president-dissolves-parliament-after-fleeing-army-backed-protest

4. Amnesty International. (2025, March 17). Niger: “Threatened and brought to heel”. https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/research/2025/03/niger-threatened-and-brought-to-heel/

5. The Guardian. (2023, July 13). ‘I believe this war will destroy Sudan’: The coup protesters now on the run. https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2023/jul/13/i-believe-this-war-will-destroy-sudan-the-coup-protesters-now-on-the-run

6. The Guardian. (2025, October 11). Unease at slow pace of change in Nepal one month on from Gen Z protests. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/11/nepal-gen-z-protests-one-month-on-slow-change